Analyzing the Trends of COVID-19 and Human Activity Intensity in Malaysia

Analyzing the Trends of COVID-19 and Human Activity Intensity in Malaysia

Blog Article

COVID-19 has struck the world with multiple waves.Each wave was caused by a variant and presented different peaks and baselines.This made the identification of waves with the time series of the cases a difficult task.

Human activity intensities may affect the occurrence of an outbreak.We demonstrated a metric of time series, blue square tablecloth namely log-moving-average-ratio (LMAR), to identify the waves and directions of the changes in the disease cases and check-ins (MySejahtera).Based on the detected waves and changes, we explore the relationship between the two.

Using the stimulus-organism-response model with our results, we presented a four-stage model: (1) government-imposed movement restrictions, (2) revenge travel, (3) self-imposed movement reduction, and (4) the new normal.The inverse patterns between check-ins and pandemic waves suggested that the self-imposed movement reduction would naturally happen and would be sufficient for a smaller epidemic wave.People may spontaneously be aware of the severity of epidemic situations and take appropriate disease prevention measures to reduce the risks of exposure and u motion bowling ball infection.

In summary, LMAR is more sensitive to the waves and could be adopted to characterize the association between travel willingness and confirmed disease cases.